| Published on: | 2011-02-10 18:15:56 |
Egyptian liberation might be closer than previously thought.
An Egyptian official has told Reuters news agency that President Mubarak's fate will be decided in a matter of hours and he will "most probably" step down.
The Egyptian army has said on state television today that the demands of the demonstrators “will be fulfilled” and that they are ready to “protect people”.
Also, a senior member of Egypt's governing party has told the BBC he "hopes" that President Hosni Mubarak will transfer power to Vice-President Omar Suleiman.
Hossan Badrawi, secretary general of the National Democratic Party (NDP), said Mr Mubarak would "most probably" speak to the nation within hours.
After seventeen days since the first demonstration, President Mubarak's rule may come to an end.
Despite this breaking news, it was just yesterday that the Foreign Minister, Ahmed Abul-Ghiet, called for the constitution to be preserved in order to protect the country against chaos. "We have to preserve the constitution, even if it was amended," Mr Abul-Ghiet told Al-Arabiya television.
He also warned that if chaos occurs, the armed forces will intervene to control the country, “a step that will lead to a very dangerous situation,” said Mr Abul-Ghiet.
Jessica Forsythe, an analyst in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, claims that threats of this kind from senior Egyptian officials are merely scaremongering. Speaking exclusively to The Fresh Outlook, she said: “The Egyptian army’s position in the recent unrest may not have outwardly backed either side, but it has been very clear on its position regarding the protesters. The Egyptian military sees itself as very strongly representing a nation, not a regime.”
“The military’s main fear is anarchy, so it will do what it can to prevent this occurring, but this is very unlikely to spill into violence against protesters who have been largely peaceful,” said Ms Forsythe.
Nevertheless, just a few hours earlier, the Egyptian military was ready for the massive demonstration planned for tomorrow by the opposition. Tanks and soldiers were already positioned around Tahrir Square, but the probability that President Mubarak will step down has changed the situation.
Also, human rights campaigners accused the army of being involved in both disappearances and torture.
However, Ms Forsythe claims that although the army have appeared to be trying to stop the attacks, they have been applying no real force: “It has since been claimed that Suleiman refused to provide the military with bullets, for fear they would turn their weapons against the regime,” she says.
The role of the international community
The White House said yesterday that Egyptian ministers must do more to meet the demands of the protesters who want an immediate end to President Mubarak's 30 year rule.
According to Ms Forsythe, many analysts have claimed that the protesters actually want the west to get involved in order to ensure the removal of President Mubarak, with “some noting that the majority of the placards have been written in English, a clear sign of who their target audience actually is."
However, Mr Abul-Ghiet said Washington should not "impose" its will on "a great country". The government also argued yesterday that rapid reforms would be too risky.
Risky or not, the truth is that the pressure from other countries may clash with the sovereignty right that every state has, or should have.
As Ms Forsythe says, many neighbouring states fear that the consequences of rushing President Mubarak's step down from power could include creating a potential vacuum, which means that chaos that could ensue: “To this end, states such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are urging the US to rescind this demand and allow Suleiman to manoeuvre the country through the period of transition while President Mubarak is quietly removed from the scene.”
However, the final chapter of this Egyptian novel might come to an end very soon.
By Eva Fernandez
[Image courtesy of Ramy Raoof]
An Egyptian official has told Reuters news agency that President Mubarak's fate will be decided in a matter of hours and he will "most probably" step down.
The Egyptian army has said on state television today that the demands of the demonstrators “will be fulfilled” and that they are ready to “protect people”.
Also, a senior member of Egypt's governing party has told the BBC he "hopes" that President Hosni Mubarak will transfer power to Vice-President Omar Suleiman.
Hossan Badrawi, secretary general of the National Democratic Party (NDP), said Mr Mubarak would "most probably" speak to the nation within hours.
After seventeen days since the first demonstration, President Mubarak's rule may come to an end.
Despite this breaking news, it was just yesterday that the Foreign Minister, Ahmed Abul-Ghiet, called for the constitution to be preserved in order to protect the country against chaos. "We have to preserve the constitution, even if it was amended," Mr Abul-Ghiet told Al-Arabiya television.
He also warned that if chaos occurs, the armed forces will intervene to control the country, “a step that will lead to a very dangerous situation,” said Mr Abul-Ghiet.
Jessica Forsythe, an analyst in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, claims that threats of this kind from senior Egyptian officials are merely scaremongering. Speaking exclusively to The Fresh Outlook, she said: “The Egyptian army’s position in the recent unrest may not have outwardly backed either side, but it has been very clear on its position regarding the protesters. The Egyptian military sees itself as very strongly representing a nation, not a regime.”
“The military’s main fear is anarchy, so it will do what it can to prevent this occurring, but this is very unlikely to spill into violence against protesters who have been largely peaceful,” said Ms Forsythe.
Nevertheless, just a few hours earlier, the Egyptian military was ready for the massive demonstration planned for tomorrow by the opposition. Tanks and soldiers were already positioned around Tahrir Square, but the probability that President Mubarak will step down has changed the situation.
Also, human rights campaigners accused the army of being involved in both disappearances and torture.
However, Ms Forsythe claims that although the army have appeared to be trying to stop the attacks, they have been applying no real force: “It has since been claimed that Suleiman refused to provide the military with bullets, for fear they would turn their weapons against the regime,” she says.
The role of the international community
The White House said yesterday that Egyptian ministers must do more to meet the demands of the protesters who want an immediate end to President Mubarak's 30 year rule.
According to Ms Forsythe, many analysts have claimed that the protesters actually want the west to get involved in order to ensure the removal of President Mubarak, with “some noting that the majority of the placards have been written in English, a clear sign of who their target audience actually is."
However, Mr Abul-Ghiet said Washington should not "impose" its will on "a great country". The government also argued yesterday that rapid reforms would be too risky.
Risky or not, the truth is that the pressure from other countries may clash with the sovereignty right that every state has, or should have.
As Ms Forsythe says, many neighbouring states fear that the consequences of rushing President Mubarak's step down from power could include creating a potential vacuum, which means that chaos that could ensue: “To this end, states such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are urging the US to rescind this demand and allow Suleiman to manoeuvre the country through the period of transition while President Mubarak is quietly removed from the scene.”
However, the final chapter of this Egyptian novel might come to an end very soon.
By Eva Fernandez
[Image courtesy of Ramy Raoof]
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